THE LOOK AHEAD – APRIL 2026

Produced By:

Bret Manley (bret@elevatega.com) and David Marten (david@elevatega.com)

Balance of Power

Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents Caucusing with Democrats
House: 217 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 1 “Independent”, 3 Vacancies*

• GA-14: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned at the beginning of the year. No candidate secured a majority in the March 10th special election and a runoff will be held April 14th. This is a safe GOP seat.
• NJ-11: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) resigned November 20th, 2025 in advance of her swearing in as New Jersey’s next Governor on January 20th. The special election will be held April 16th. This is a safe Democratic seat.
• CA-01: Rep. Doug LaMalfa passed away unexpectedly on January 6th. The special election is set for August 4th but if a candidate receives 50%+1 in the June 2nd primary they will automatically win the seat. This is a safe Republican seat and the only Republican (currently) running is personal friend/fraternity brother of one of your hosts, outgoing California House Republican Leader James Gallagher.

Driving the Month Ahead

• Iran…Iran So Far Away: To date, Congress has largely been on the sidelines. That changes the minute the Administration needs more money to continue its operations, and at present the Pentagon is seeking an additional $200 billion. The “problem Republicans” will overlap heavily with Republicans who had issues funding military activities in Ukraine, yet, a majority of Republicans still opposed cutting off support for Ukraine. Trump probably can’t rely on a significant number of Democrats to support a $200 billion request. So where do the votes come from? This will be a big problem for the Administration, regardless of how well they frame how the war in Iran is going. Trump is going live at 9pm ET tonight across all four major broadcast networks…allegedly to say the Iran war is winding down…as we always say, pay attention to what Trump does (asking for $200 billion), not what he says (war is winding down).
• Department of Closed-land Security: Is this department ever going to open? Up until this afternoon, it sure seemed like the answer was no. Trump being Trump, Republicans were listless until the President finally weighed in in support of pairing the Senate-passed vehicle with funding CBP and ICE through the remainder of his presidency. Will Republicans actually get that reconciliation bill done? More on that below…but color us skeptical.
• 2027 (Approps) Is Our Year, This Time Will Be Different!: We considered not including a bullet on this, because the only relevant question at present is will there be another shutdown in September and honestly… we don’t have the energy for that thought exercise. The action gets underway this month, but both parties will (probably) punt eventually to see what happens with the elections.
• Tariff Me Once, Shame on You, Tariff Me Twice?: In the wake of the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariff authority, the president opened Sec. 301 investigations into “industrial excess capacity” on the US market as well as “forced labor.” We are told tariffs on countries and industries resulting from the investigation will look similar to the reciprocal tariffs imposed previously. Right now, the universe of countries being targeted is between 20 and 30. Overall, the goal is to get to 50% (of a product) manufactured in the US. If your product is primarily manufactured outside of the U.S., prepare to be in the crosshairs of the Administration’s efforts.
• Speaking of Tariffs: We are told that both Senate Finance and House Ways and Means will hold hearings on the reauthorization of USMCA, which will include an appearance by USTR Jamieson Greer, tentatively scheduled for the week of April 20th.
• Will They or Won’t They Reconcile?: One byproduct of the failure to reopen the Department of Homeland Security—even via CR at funding levels signed by President Biden—is the prospect of another reconciliation bill has gone up significantly. House Republicans have repeatedly noted this shutdown isn’t doing anything since ICE got a huge funding boost under OBBB (only partly true, the officers/agents getting paid yes…back-office staff not so much). Well, many of them have concluded that since the Senate filibuster isn’t going anywhere…why not fund large swaths of the government under reconciliation? The immigration enforcement issue gives them something to rally around, and it’s an issue Republicans want to be talking about come election day. Without the DHS funding issues, there just wasn’t enough juice to squeeze out a bill. There are still major obstacles to reconciliation 2.0…but the motivation will push this further up the hill than otherwise possible.
• (Ignore) The Filibuster Conversation: Senate Republicans are not abolishing the filibuster…it will instantly turn the body into a smaller House of Representatives (and nobody wants another House of Representatives). Certainly not to pass DHS funding. We’ll also note that voter ID is already the law in 36 states. This is largely a conversation – like it was for the Democrats –  driven by activist elements of the party’s base, frustrated they can’t pass things they want passed. Voter ID is an easy target because it’s politically popular (65% of Democrats). Some of the loudest voices on this – any we won’t name names – would instantly lose all relevance in the Senate if the filibuster went away, because they could no longer place holds on bills, slow down debate, and make sure their demands were addressed. Ultimately, nuking the filibuster empowers leadership in addition to destroying the rights of the minority party AND the minority of the majority party. But it gets you a bunch of clicks online so you’ll still hear about it a bunch.
• VRA Decision Coming?: With the release of the Chiles decision yesterday, there is one remaining case from the Supreme Court’s October session without resolution, which is the challenge to Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act requiring certain Congressional districts be drawn to contain a majority of non-white voters. It’s widely expected that SCOTUS will strike down this section as unconstitutional. We still think the court holds this until June. If released now, there’s a scenario one or more states can use it as a pretext for another round of redistricting, Florida in particular. However, it will have far reaching implications in the future as there are 19 VRA districts in states where Republicans control the entire process. Further, it would open legal challenges to VRA districts in blue states on the grounds that they were drawn in violation of a potential Callais opinion, putting another 100 or so VRA districts in jeopardy.

On Deck – House and Senate Rumblings

Planes, Trains, and Automobiles: House T&I passed the ALERT Act right before we went to Easter Recess. Notably, the NTSB endorsed (or at least verbally approved of) the bill, a big win for Chairman Graves and RM Larsen. The day before the vote, the Committee hosted NTSB Chairwoman – and friend of the Look Ahead – Jennifer Homendy in the committee room to brief Members. This type of thing doesn’t happen unless there’s somewhat of a partnership, and yet, they still need to deal with the fact that the Senate passed a different bill and the House hasn’t passed anything. Mind you there is not a lot of goodwill built up between House T&I and Senate Commerce. One upshot of this is its delaying action on a surface reauthorization. HOWEVER, how do you like your scoops…in a waffle or sugar cone? Chairman Graves told the Look Ahead that the Committee will markup a surface reauthorization “when we return from recess.” Do we believe that? Not really. Though we don’t doubt that’s the goal. Our understanding from GOP sources is the GOP offer is with the Dems but the Dems aren’t focusing on it until ALERT is in the rearview. Meanwhile, our Dem sources of course completely dispute that narrative and blame any delays on Republicans. Assuming this timeline is accurate, it’s an indication that the surface reauthorization itself is probably limited in how much ground it’s breaking. Controversy requires education. Farther down the line, work on WRDA is progressing but looking at late spring or early summer.

Online Safety on the Move?: There is a lot of speculation on what the next steps on kids online safety will be in the wake of the House E&C markup. That the Senate passed via UC its version of COPPA 2.0 during the E&C markup is one of the bigger flexes we’ve seen in a while. Still, our understanding is the House was unmoved. Broadly, the House needs to figure out COPPA before it will get to KIDS (House version of KOSA). They haven’t decided if they will pass their own House bill or work from the Senate bill. If they haven’t decided that yet, it’s not a good sign they’ll get there. Sammy’s Law and the App Store bill are on their own separate tracks from kids online safety legislation and all of this is separate from a general online data privacy bill which the committee is beginning to compile though the calendar runway is getting awfully short.

National Defense Authorization: Quickly turning into the only sure thing Congress has…we’re told May 20th is the target date for NDAA markup in the House, which would put it on a normal schedule. House Armed Services likes to have the bill ready for the floor before the Memorial Day recess. We expect Senate Armed Services will hold a markup in June but an exact date has not been set.

Shipbuilding: While not (currently) sanctioned by the front office, we understand House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces Chairman – just rolls of the tongue – Trent Kelly (R-MS) and House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Chairman Mike Ezell (R-MS) will hold a joint hearing on the President’s Maritime Action Plan (MAP) and the state of the American shipbuilding industry on April 21st.

Can You Take Me FISA-nough: It’s never over, yesterday’s just a memory…of the last floor fight over FISA reauthorization. The goal (it’s nice to have goals) is for the House to go first and then the Senate in late April. We told you way way back that Operation Arctic Frost could lead to some serious issues. The first one was when the Senate tried to allow Senators to seek monetary damages over it (the House later forced it’s repeal)…but the FISA Reauthorization is likely to be a prime target, and the revelation that the probe went after more than two years of phone, text, and banking information of the now FBI Director Kash Patel could provide lawmakers who have long been critical of FISA an ally in the Administration.

NIL Redux Ex Machina?: Every day brings another rumor that a House vote on “Name, Image, and Likeness” aka “NIL” legislation is imminent. Setting aside that the bill is more about anti-trust exemptions and pay-to-play that anything related to a right-of-publicity, we are skeptical. For one, the Senate is moving in multiple directions, with multiple factions, and the primary jurisdiction resides with Commerce Chairman Ted Cruz, who himself is working on a new draft of his NIL legislation seeking a deal with Democrats led by Sen. Chris Coons. A major wrinkle in this debate is what to do – if anything – about the Sports Broadcasting Act (SBA). If you’re not familiar – which like...what are you…a farmer? –  that is the law that allows leagues to pool their broadcasting rights (sell all NFL/MLB/NBA games as a package) without violating anti-trust laws. The NCAA cannot do this though the conferences can. The Republicans in the House have a number of Democrats, primarily from SEC/BIG10/HBCU territory, on board with their bill but they are offset by a number of Republicans who demand changes to the SBA. Energy and Commerce’s SCORE Act did not address the SBA, and they’ve told us they will not “air drop” SBA language onto the floor…i.e. it’ll have to go through the committee process…which they really don’t have time for. So tell us how this gets done now that college football and basketball are (soon to be) off your TV screen?

Get Smart – Can POTUS Really Force Congress to Meet?

President Trump recently floated calling Congress back from recess and forcing a special session to address the DHS Shutdown – because why not, surely a few more days away from their homes and families will focus the mind and get a deal! Many people are saying the President can’t actually do this, but people say all kinds of things…so…can he?

Is This a Real Thing or Did Trump Make It Up?: We assure you it’s a real thing, and has been used before by real Presidents, though we’d argue under…slightly…more perilous circumstances.

Ok This Is Where You Hit Me With the Constitution: Gosh, our readers are so smart! You’re right, the Constitution lays it out. Specifically, Article II, Section 3: “…he may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper…”

Cool, Did They Define What An “Extraordinary Occasion” Is?: Haha, of course not.

When It’s Happened in the Past, Were the Circumstances Extraordinary? Haha, also no. The most recent session of Congress called under Article II, Section 3 powers was an 11 day session that began on July 26th, 1948 and is known as the “Turnip Day Session”. At the time, Congress was controlled by the Republicans for the first time since before the Great Depression, and Truman was assumed to be heading toward defeat by the Republican Presidential Nominee, NY Governor Tom Dewey.

You’re Messing With Me, That Doesn’t Sound Very Extraordinary: We are not! Then President Harry Truman (from the great state of Missouri…or Missour-ah) used his nomination speech at the Democratic National Convention to call Congress back into session after it had adjourned on June 21st for the year to address civil rights, social security, and health care. It would convene on July 26th, known in Missour-ah as “Turnip Day”.

Did Anything Get Done?: Yeah they passed a couple bills, which Truman signed and then called them a “do-nothing” Congress anyways… if you’re wondering where that phrase comes from.

OK, Before Turnip Day, Was This More Common? It was. Why, you might ask? Well Congress used to spend far less time in DC on account of travel times (wagons and trains and stuff) and did not always convene in a timely manner. This all changed with the 20th Amendment to the Constitution which set January 3rd as the day Congress shall convene each year.

So, Were The Before Times More Serious?: Yes and no. You had your administrative issues where Presidents (Monroe, John Q. Adams, William Henry Harrison) called Congress into session upon their ascension to the Presidency and the desire to get to work and all that. Garfield called one for Presidential appointments, when Tyler Harrison died of pneumonia (wear a coat my man) and the Presidential succession was not yet fully defined in the Constitution. But mostly they were either significant economic issues – FDR (Depression), Cleveland (Panic of ’93), Jackson and Van Buren (Panic of ’37) – or of course there was a war going on – Madison (1812), Polk (Mexican-American), Lincoln (Fort Sumter/Civil War), Wilson (WWI).

So What You’re Telling Me Is We Should Expect This?: In April? No. In August?…we’ll see…

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