The Look Ahead – June 2025

THE LOOK AHEAD – JUNE 2025

Produced By:

Bret Manley (bret@elevatega.com) and David Marten (david@elevatega.com)
Elevate Government Affairs (www.elevatega.com)

 

 

Balance of Power

Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents Caucusing with Democrats
House: 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats*, 3 Vacancies

• TX-18: Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX) passed away on March 5th after just arriving in Congress to fill the seat long held by former Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee until she passed away last year. A special election will be held November 4th, 2025. This is a safe Democratic seat.
• AZ-07: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) passed away from cancer on March 13th. He had served in Congress since 2003 and as the top Democrat on the Committee on Natural Resources since 2015 until Rep. Jared Huffman (D-CA) supplanted him this January. The primary for this seat will be held July 15th and the general election on September 23rd. This is a safe Democratic seat.
• VA-11: Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) passed away from esophageal cancer on May 21st after serving in Congress since 2008. Under Virginia law, there is no timeline the Governor must follow to set a special election. Additionally, by law, special elections must be held on a Tuesday, and cannot be held within 55 days of a primary or general election. Virginia holds its State election in off years, and therefore, with the primary on June 17th, the earliest the seat could be filled is June 24th, and the last eligible day before the general election would be September 9th. This is a safe Democratic seat.

Top Line Takeaways:

• Palace Intrigue Comes to the Senate (Reconciliation): Republican leaders are saying they want a bill on the President’s desk by July 4th. We think that’s a little ambitious, and it’s more likely delayed a few weeks to scoop up the debt ceiling, but June will determine just how much will get done for the rest of the session. In politics, wins tend to beget wins, and high-profile face plants find people jumping off a sinking ship. The Senate is going to make changes to the House bill; how significant those changes are (or aren’t) will matter because the House is likely to have to swallow whatever comes over. Senators will have a lot to say about this process, but only 20 Senate Republicans will be on the ballot in 2026. With JD Vance able to break a tie, the Senate GOP can lose 3 votes. Here’s who we think you should watch:
  • Susan Collins (R-ME): The perennial wildcard. Her decision to run for re-election will probably cost Senate Democrats $200 million to try and unseat her, but she’s shown a willingness to go against the GOP at times and has been rewarded for it by voters. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) often makes similar moves to Collins (they both voted to impeach Trump), but not being up for re-election presents a different set of considerations, and perhaps willingness of Leadership to make concessions.
  • Thom Tillis (R-NC): Belying the state’s conservative reputation, five of the last six Governors of North Carolina (including the incumbent) have been Democrats. Tillis has a reputation as a dealmaker that irritates the GOP base, and he’s drawn a primary opponent while publicly feuding at times with Trump officials. Still, among campaign professionals, Tillis and his operation have a reputation for being top-class and absolutely merciless.
  • Bill Cassidy (R-LA): One of three GOP Senators who voted to impeach President Trump that is still serving (Murkowski and Collins are the other two). Last year, Louisiana voted to change its unique open primary process with primaries held on election day. A runoff occurs in December if a candidate fails to reach 50%+1. This process typically resulted in more moderate candidates winning elections than if a closed primary had been held. Speculation is that the rules were changed in large part to enable a primary of Sen. Cassidy.
  • Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY): The longest-serving GOP Leader in history isn’t running for re-election. He voted against three of President Trump’s cabinet nominees and has been a vocal critic of Trump’s tariff strategy. Will he be a thorn in Trump’s side one more time?
  • Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): This is the cycle the Democrats win Texas!…no…it’s not.  BUT, Sen. Cornyn has drawn a high-profile primary opponent in Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a darling of the conservative base. There’s a long way to go until next year’s primary, but polling suggests Sen. Cornyn will keep a keen eye on how this bill is playing with the base. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), who voted for the House bill, is also widely believed to be considering a run against Cornyn.
• Slappin’ The Budget Bass-Line: Senate Republicans have been pretty open about potentially assuming the policy baseline for tax cuts… which means extending them costs nothing…at least on paper. This runs counter to how CBO scores legislation (more on that below). It seems likely that they’ll do this, but it might turn out to be the most consequential Senate decision since changing the filibuster for nominees, will they come to regret it in the future?
• Regular Order, Schmegular Order: Leader Thune made waves when he signaled an open process on the stablecoin legislation. We doubt this mindset will pertain to reconciliation. The usual rabble rousers will make a lot of noise about it, but there simply isn’t an appetite for a bunch of show votes that don’t move the ball down the field. Most of the noise should be viewed as positioning or messaging to the GOP base.
• Appropriators Keep on Grinding: You gotta admire the commitment – and the staff’s willingness to keep showing up – to the promise that this year is going to be THE year that all 12 appropriations bills will get individually passed and signed into law. We’ve seen this movie before, and if Blockbuster Video were still around, you could find it in the fantasy section. Nevertheless, subcommittee and full committee markups will kick off in June. However, one thing differs this year from last: Speaker Johnson doesn’t have to face a vote for Speaker next January. Full schedule below.
• Big Budget Arrives:  President Trump sent portions of his “big” budget to the Hill last Friday, though as of this writing, some agencies’ justifications have still not been released. Another reminder that this has zero force of law, but it should certainly be viewed as the baseline of what this Administration will be focused on for the next three years. The real action is in the appendix, which you can find here.
• DOGE Dies in the Darkness…or Does It?: Whither DOGE, we hardly knew thee. Most of President Trump’s initial high-profile “DOGE” staff saw their terms as special government employees expire, including Elon Musk. DOGE never could seem to shake the culture war issues that dominated social media to do any of the work it was promising. What remains and what lasting changes will take place is still an open question, though the cuts to staffing across agencies will undoubtedly be felt for years to come. To be clear, every high-profile Trump official in a position to know has been making the rounds on TV over the weekend to promise that the work goes on. Perhaps the most consequential (if misunderstood) is the idea of consolidating redundant government functions. That work will largely be undertaken by the individual agencies under the OMB “Agency RIF and Realignment Plans”. Because each agency is run by people with varying degrees of managerial and political talent, the results of these efforts will be uneven across departments. Can the Trump Administration maintain its focus on this effort? Only time will tell.
• Rescissions: After a dustup on X.com – where else? – about the “Big Beautiful Bill” not codifying any of the DOGE cuts, none other than Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller came out and explained process to the angry X mob. Process is important! And Stephen, of course, is right on this point. Miller coming out and doing that is probably not a coincidence. He’s trusted by the MAGA base, and there is a sense that the messaging was getting away from the White House. Lo and behold, next week President Trump is expected to send a recissions package to the Hill. This one has been promised for a while, and fortunately for Republicans only needs 50 votes (assuming JD Vance tiebreaker).  Whatever is in this recissions package will make it into campaign ads next year, so watch closely at what Team Trump sends over, it’ll be a window into where they feel they’re on the most solid political footing.

Legislative Action in June

In the Senate: As we covered above, it’s the Senate’s turn on reconciliation. While some committees could mark up their portions of the package, if the Senate wants to meet its July 4 timeline, it looks to us like much of the bill will need to go directly to the floor. Until the whole package does hit the floor, expect the Senate to continue to churn out nominations. There’s also the lingering threat of the Credit Card Competition Act, which made a cameo during the stablecoin debate, and continues to be a boon to podcasting ad revenue. Finally, a reminder that before they left town for the Memorial Day Recess the Senate, which generally declines to pass silly nonbinding resolutions like the House, designated June 12 as National Seersucker Day. Dress appropriately.

In the House: House Republicans are on a roll (we can’t believe it either), and if you go back and look at the tape, we think there’s a reason. They’ve scheduled the floor to support the issues the White House has been messaging on that have large bipartisan levels of support in the public, while avoiding those that don’t (mostly tariffs). Support for the police, cracking down on illegal immigration, transgender athlete’s participation in women’s sports, etc. Expect this to continue in June, especially on immigration, the opioid crisis, and higher education, but mostly on immigration. Most of this is filler however; the House is killing time while the Senate figures out how to clear One Big Beautiful Bill.

Committee Spotlight

House Appropriations: Subject to change, this is what the schedule for June will look like.

Thursday June 5
Mil Con-VA (Subcommittee)
Agriculture (Subcommittee)

Monday, June 9
2026 Homeland Security (Subcommittee)

Tuesday, June 10
Defense (Classified, Subcommittee)
Mil Con-VA (Full Committee)

Wednesday, June 11
Agriculture (Full Committee)

Thursday, June 12
Homeland Security (Full Committee)

Friday, June 13
Defense Bill (Full Committee)

Monday, June 23
Interior and Environment (Subcommittee)
Financial Services and General Government (Subcommittee)

Tuesday, June 24
National Security-Department of State (Subcommittee)
Legislative Branch Bill (Subcommittee)

Thursday, June 26
Interior and Environment (Full Committee)
Financial Services and General Government (Full Committee)

Friday, June 27
National Security-Department of State (Full Committee)
Legislative Branch Bill (Full Committee)

House Armed Services: House Armed Services expects to mark up the FY 2026 National Defense Authorization on June 25th. Assuming everything goes smoothly, and there’s no indication it won’t, the bill will be on the floor in July.

House Transportation and Infrastructure: The Committee will conduct more FAA oversight and look at the future of the Coast Guard in the wake of Secretary Noem releasing Force Design 2028, which notably calls for the creation of a Secretary of the Coast Guard. T&I was supposed to markup its Coast Guard reauthorization last month but postponed the markup and is still working through outstanding issues that complicated last year’s effort. Text on a Secretary of the Coast Guard position has been circulating but many unanswered questions remain about how, in practice, it would reshape the mission and regulatory functions of the service.

• ATC/Aviation Roundtables: Aviation Subcommittee Chairman Nehls and Ranking Member Cohen have committed to holding (at least) 7 roundtables on the modernization of the ATC. The first one kicks off June 4th with ATC Technology providers and OEMs followed by Telecommunication providers the week of June 23rd. Additional topics (in this order) will be Airlines and Pilots Unions, General Aviation, Airports, New Entrants (Drones/eVTOL), Former Government Officials. Our understanding is this effort is being handled by each Member’s personal office, not the Committee.

Senate Appropriations: We know from some hot mic comments Chairman Cole made that the House Appropriations FY26 numbers will pretty closely hew to the White House’s budget proposal. The real question is: what does the Senate do? Over the last two years, then-Chair Murray and Vice Chair Collins marked almost all their bills up in a bipartisan manner, based on the Fiscal Responsibility Act. But with that two-year agreement having sunset, the open question is, what does Collins do with her numbers? Count on lots of folks downtown anxiously awaiting the Committee to deem 302(a) and 302(b) allocations for insight.

Senate Commerce: After being nominated back in  hear Brian Bedford will get his nomination hearing Commerce to be FAA Administrator. Otherwise, the Committee’s focus remains on reconciliation and getting a deal done on spectrum.

Get Smart – How Does the Congressional Budget Office Work?

If you haven’t already, you’re going to hear a lot about CBO estimates of the “One Big Beautiful Bill”. If we’re being honest…and we’d never lie to you…politicians (and the media) only care about CBO scoring if it supports their world view. Why? Because it’s impossible to predict the future. When the original Trump Tax cuts were passed into law, CBO certainly couldn’t have predicted COVID. We apologize to the CBO staff for this comment. Nevertheless, while it’s not as important (as in will not have an torpedo the bill) on reconciliation, CBO absolutely does impact what does and doesn’t come to the floor for bills that aren’t “must pass” priorities of the President. So here is how they work.

Let’s Start With Who These People Are: You’ll be surprised, or not, to learn that there are fewer CBO employees working on a bill than you think there are (or should be). Recent figures peg the total staff at around 270 people. Each session of Congress produces 11,000-14,000 bills. That’s a lot! Obviously not all of these get scored, but at a minimum, every bill that reaches the floor in some capacity gets a score, and in general every bill that a committee advances gets scored. This is before you get multiple scores on bills that change, like reconciliation.

So How Many Bills Does CBO Score Each Year?: The House passes about 300-600 bills per session (suspensions add up!). The Senate occasionally passes somethings the House doesn’t, and of course, there are multiple versions of bills as they’re amended throughout the process. Scoring a bill takes a lot of effort and research. Which means we’re setting you up for…

More People Should Be Involved Here Right?: Probably, yes. True story, one of Bret’s bosses was a subcommittee chairman and at the time was working on a bill to reduce the federal real property footprint, which costs the government lots and lots of money and managing it is super inefficient. We had some fun times, but in terms of passing legislation (which we did!)…there was a single, solitary person at CBO who handled GSA property disposal. One guy. And he believed that it cost more money to dispose of property than the government would make selling it. And this is what he wrote in his reports. Almost nobody in the federal electorate votes on this issue (nobody…there is nobody, sorry Jeff!). Which means to get this bill on the floor, we had to convince this one person that he was wrong. If you can’t convince CBO that they’re wrong (we couldn’t), you must get creative with how you structure the bills to avoid “triggering” a score, which is probably not the best way to write legislation, but that’s the system we got!

Ok, But the Big Beautiful Bill Doesn’t Just Have One Guy, Right?: Absolutely. Leadership (and especially Majority Leadership) has first rights when it comes to CBO resources. Random, down-dais Members of the House and Senate can’t request CBO scores. Well…they can, but CBO just LOLs at them (this happened repeatedly to David when he worked for a down-dias House member). With 270 employees, they only score legislation that they’re required to (aka passes in Committee and a House/Senate Report is filed) or House/Senate Leadership asks them to.

OK, CBO Commits to Scoring a Bill, What Do They Do?: Conduct a seance and consult the oracle, of course. Kidding! Or are we? Basically, they look at the text, then look at current law (foreshadowing!). Then, they call a bunch of people in the government, industry, academia, etc., and try to figure out what will happen. They also lean heavily on previous CBO scores on similar policy changes. This is especially important if you’re trying to do something for the first time.  If you screw up the precedent, it’s almost impossible to undo it.

Are There Any Important Rules They Follow?: There are two big things that create challenges for Congressional Leadership. The first is the difference between mandatory and discretionary spending. Depending on who is in control of Congress, what CBO says here could run afoul of the rules of the House or Senate. When Republicans are in charge, it’s “CUTGO,” and when the Dems have power, it’s PAYGO. Basically, you can’t increase spending without cutting expenditures or raising revenue to offset the amount. With Republicans, increasing mandatory spending is the fast track to never getting your bill on the floor. We should note, though, that these rules only matter for bills that aren’t priorities or when Leadership wants something to go away. “Must pass” bills won’t be derailed by it, regardless of what you read on CNN.com.

Wait You Said Two Things!: Yes, the good ole “budgetary window”. CBO projects the impact on the federal budget for the next 5- and 10-year periods. Offering a view (get it…window…view…) into the top line number that the bill will add to or subtract from the deficit. Leaders, mainly for messaging purposes, really only care about this number. Because of this, Congressional Leadership gets creative about when spending and revenue provisions kick in or expire. This is why so many things expire in 5 years, or increase incrementally, because it helps with the 10-year score.  Again, probably not the best way to write legislation, but here we are!

You Said the CBO Score Won’t Derail a Bill?: Well, it’ll derail bills that don’t have a political imperative. If you want to sell vacant federal property, it’s a big problem. But in this case, it won’t be. At its core, CBO fulfills an advisory function. Their recommendations do not carry the weight of law. It’s just an expensive opinion people fight about in the press.

Final Thing, What’s All This Talk About the Baseline?: Ok… To issue a score in a 5- and 10-year budget window, CBO considers current law, as it would exist in each of the next 5 and 10 years, assuming nothing changed. If a tax cut/hike expires in five years, CBO assumes it will expire and then scores the bill in the second five years as if the cut/hike wasn’t part of the code. Senate Republicans are angling to change the scoring to say that bills should be scored based on whether current law were permanent. People who advocate for either only really care insofar as it supports their political position. These are all just numbers on a piece of paper that are incredibly bad at predicting the future. House Conservatives don’t like the Senate approach. Both sides have a defensible argument. Lots of times, policies are extended…anyone remember the “Doc Fix”? Lots of times they go away…RIP Cadillac Tax. At the end of the day, you just don’t know. It’s impossible to predict what the next Congress will do.

So What You’re Saying is Don’t Pay Too Much Attention to What CBO Says? Yes. It won’t impact the result. It may impact campaign ad spending and force a tweak of this or that tax provisions’ expiration date, but its final effect on votes will be zero.

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