THE LOOK AHEAD – October 2025

Produced By:

Bret Manley (bret@elevatega.com) and David Marten (david@elevatega.com) Elevate Government Affairs (www.elevatega.com)

Balance of Power

Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents Caucusing with Democrats House: 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 2* Vacancies

  • TX-18: Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX) passed away on March 5th after just arriving in Congress to fill the seat long held by former Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee until she passed away last year. A special election will be held on November 4th, 2025. This is a safe Democratic seat.
  • TN-07: Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), currently the Chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, abruptly resigned from Congress on July 20th. A special primary will be held on October 7th followed by a general election on December 2nd. This is a safe Republican seat.
  • *AZ-07: Rep. Raul Grijalva’s (D-AZ) daughter Adelita won the September 23rd special election. Speaker Johnson (R-LA) has stated she will be sworn in when the House returns from recess.

Top Line Takeaways

  • How Long is this Going To Last?: The safe bet is at least through the weekend but less than two weeks. Bret’s estimate is 10 days, David says seven. When people start missing paychecks, things can spiral out of control very quickly. The caveat to this is there doesn’t appear to be any obvious offramp for Senate Democrats. They will need to get something to take back to their voters to show it was worth it.
  • What’s Different From the Last Two Shutdowns?: There are major differences politically from the situation we find ourselves in. These dynamics highlight how all shutdowns are different. Here we have unified Republican control of Washington, and unlike the previous two shutdowns, Republicans are pushing for the clean CR to keep the government open while Democrats are trying to leverage their position for concessions. Perhaps the biggest and most important problem for the Democrats is they control neither the House nor Senate…meaning they have no control over the floor of either chamber…i.e. they can’t force a vote on re-opening the government under their terms. Some more specifics:
    • 2018: The 35-day shutdown at the end of 2018 and into 2019 was only a partial shutdown; five appropriations bills had been signed into law (DoD, Mil-Con VA, Leg Branch, Energy and Water, Labor-HHS), so large swaths of the federal government that interact with the voting public were open and operational. Also, this shutdown began in December with the GOP in control of the House but ended in January, when the Democrats controlled the House. The Senate was still in GOP hands. The chief antagonist calling for a shutdown was President Trump, who was demanding a border wall be funded in DHS Appropriations. He did not get his border wall.
    • 2013: A full government shutdown for 16 days. President Barack Obama was in the first year of his second term, Democrats held 51 Senate seats, and Republicans had a 33-seat House majority, which was the remnants of the 2010 Tea Party wave that began in the wake of the FY2008 financial crash and subsequent bailouts, stimulus, and the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). John Boehner was Speaker of the House. The chief antagonist of this shutdown was the House GOP who wanted to “defund” Obamacare. All the GOP got out of this was income verification for ACA subsidies and a bicameral budget conference committee. Remember that? No, of course you don’t. The ACA was not defunded.
    • Government Employee Pay: A significant leverage chip in both shutdowns was whether or not furloughed employees would receive backpay once the government reopened. After all, it wasn’t their fault they weren’t working. Well, you may not remember but in 2019 Congress passed and President Trump signed into law the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019, which makes it the law that furloughed feds get paid as if they were working. Which is great! However, if you’re a Fed, and you get furloughed, maybe don’t take a lavish vacation to Hawaii and post it on Instagram or TikTok or whatever it is that has all the rizz these days. (We are very hip and cool here at the Look Ahead).
  • The View from GOP Circles: GOP staff and Members we talk to on the Hill frankly can’t believe the Democrats would vote to shut the government down. Nobody is worried about being blamed for the shutdown. Hill Republicans will tell you the media will blame them no matter what, only it’s not the 2013 media landscape anymore. They can get their message out much differently than a decade ago. Plus, after the 2013 shutdown Republicans netted seven Senate seats and took the majority. What they’re looking at is… what can be achieved with the government shutdown. What’s the Democrats’ version of “defund Obamacare” or “build the wall”? Meanwhile they are stupefied that Washington Democrats will hand the ball to their most hated adversary in Donald Trump to decide how magnanimous or not he wants to be in keeping government services running, potentially allowing him to make permanent staffing and organizational change through layoffs. Republicans are confident that they can force Dems to repeatedly vote against clean CRs and on the eve of the mid-October pay day, are Democrats really going to oppose opening the government with a clean CR? Their challenge is going to be not making it about themselves.
  • How Dems See the Landscape: One challenge in getting to a deal is that Democrats just don’t trust the Trump administration to follow through on any agreement that could be made to avert or quickly end a shutdown. Russ Vought at OMB has been very public about his thoughts on cutting federal agencies using any tool in his toolbox, so why agree to a six-week CR just for him to find another way to do the same thing sometime before Christmas? The vast majority of Senate Democrats, meanwhile, feel burned by the agreement on a full-year FY25 CR reached in March, and there isn’t the same group of institutionalist/stability-first members to vote with the GOP this time around. Finally, while the GOP think they have the upper hand on messaging and leverage, Democrats are looking at polling that shows Republicans—the ones who are in power—are likely to come out worse in the minds of voters when it comes to who to blame for the shutdown.
  • Somebody Is Going to Be Wrong, Right?: Well…in all probability both Hill Dems and GOP will suffer in the eyes of voters. Put simply, voters want things to work. The government is shut down but voters are still paying taxes. Incompetence is rarely rewarded. However, we are in an era of extreme polarization, so the bigger challenge is what is the message you can deliver to your own side. Dems aren’t going to get all they ask for, and eventually the government will re-open! What did they get for all this? If you’re the GOP, what did you have to concede? If the answers to those questions are “not enough” and “too much,” they both lose. The likely winner (politically) will be Donald Trump, who relishes any opportunity to look into a camera and give his audience the old “can you believe these people?” schtick. It’s his favorite thing, running against establishment dysfunction. “I have to do everything myself” on steroids. And in a shutdown, things can be as painful as the President wants, which means he will have the opportunity to grandstand every moment the government is shut down over what is, and isn’t, still functioning in the federal government.

House and Senate Operations in a Shutdown

You can find the House and Senate Shutdown Guidance for operations during THIS shutdown attached.

House: Members of Congress are performing a Constitutional duty, and the Constitution requires them to be paid for it. You’ll hear a lot of sound bites about not paying Members during a shutdown, or Members donating their salary (does anyone ever check if they do?), but absent a constitutional amendment, they’ll get paid. Each office has the ability to determine which employees are deemed “essential” to operations and thus have to show up. Way back in 2013 it wasn’t uncommon for this to be one or two people. GOP offices will likely require most of their employees to report, since they’ll be inundated with calls about why the taxpayer is paying all these employees if they aren’t “essential.” They are supposed to only work on things “essential” to the functioning of the House, which means passing bills (hearings/markups count, too, though you can’t get a federal witness, for instance). However, House Leadership told staff yesterday morning there will be no hearings or markups. Non-essential work is stopped. Casework is paused, mail doesn’t go out, and of course, the staff “retreat” to Yosemite is also kaput. So you basically have a bunch of staffers sitting around doing nothing, waiting for something to happen.

Senate: Much like the House, Senators will get paid in a shutdown. Staff don’t, but unlike 2013, they’re now guaranteed to get back pay. But while most senior personal office and committee staff can probably tolerate that short-impact that doesn’t necessarily mean that’s the case for your 23-year-old Legislative Correspondent. And who else doesn’t get paid during a shutdown, and aren’t guaranteed to get back pay? The contractors that also help the Hill run, from food service to janitorial. So what happens in the Senate during a shutdown? Committee hearings are technically allowed and a number of committees have announced that they will be moving ahead with committee business while the government is shut down. Offices will likely designate most staff as essential, but there won’t be much to do aside from constituent meetings, if they can make it through what will likely be long security lines into the buildings. But there’s good news for fans of Cups…we expect it to remain open, though everything else is likely to close.

Get Smart – A Refresher on What Happens in a Shutdown

This is an updated version of what we put out in September 2023. Give us a break—we had to write two of these things in the event they didn’t shut down! You’re in for a real treat next month though as we cover Resolutions of Inquiry…exciting!

Does Literally Every Government Action and Employee Shut Down?: No! It’s important to remember that many functioning elements of the Federal government exist on a permanent or “mandatory” basis. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid for instance exist outside of the Appropriations process. Any job that is funded by monies that exist outside of the Appropriations process is not affected by a shutdown. Social Security checks will still go out to seniors and claims can still be processed. However, at least some of the employees that operate these programs will be affected by a lack of appropriations so service will certainly suffer and it may lead to delays. Other functions that collect fees to supplement operations can likewise keep operating. A government shutdown due to a lack of appropriations isn’t an order to stop working, it means relative Agencies don’t have access to monies to fund operations. So mandatory programs and fee-based programs can still operate, though their full potential may be hampered.

Simplify It For Me: If your job, and the functions/purpose/activities associated with that job, are funded through the appropriations process, you can’t show up to work since your presence is obligating the government to spend money on you and your job. Unless of course the law or the President deem you “essential” in which case you can work on only those activities which are also considered essential. So that staff “retreat” to Yosemite for “fact-finding” is definitely out.

Is There a General Way to Think About What’s Exempt? Law Enforcement, Military…Tax Collection?: Yes! To be clear, OMB proscribes the procedures to be followed by Agencies during a lapse in government funding, and it is at the discretion of OMB should the agency choose to modify its guidance. Every Agency keeps its own shutdown guidance. They’re required to post it on their website. OMB has traditionally* relied on agency guidance since 1981 that details various categories of exempted activities in the absence of appropriations. Those activities include anything that provides for the national security, essential activities to protect life and property such as medical care, public health and safety, air traffic control, border and coastal protection, care of prisoners, law enforcement and criminal investigations generally, borrowing and tax collections of the Treasury, among other things. Generally, things that provide for the safety and security of human beings are considered “essential” for the purposes of a shutdown.

Can I Still Take MY Vacation?: If you’re worried about travel, rest easy. Air traffic control remains operational along with TSA. Though maybe this time listen to your inner Dad and get to the airport a little early!

Can Agencies Declare Employees Exempt or Essential?: Agencies have a limited degree of latitude, provided that it is not proscribed by law, to determine which employees must show up to work in the event of a shutdown. Each Agency is required to have on hand its plan in the event of a shutdown. Here is the Department of Transportation’s plan. Note the section listing things not allowed, even for exempt employees. The Secretary speaking at your Conference next week?…Not anymore.

I See You Placed An Asterisk* On OMB Traditionally* Defers to Agencies: Nothing gets by you! Yes, traditionally this is the case, but Russ Vought is not your traditional OMB Director. He has been very public about his beliefs on impoundment and, of course, October 1 is also the date that all the executive agencies were tasked to begin their RIF and Reorganization Plans. We expect the Trump administration to be much more aggressive than simply closing popular vacation spots temporarily.

What Is Important for Me and My Employer/Clients To Know?: Off the top, if your business has any federal contract for any type of non-exempt activity, it’ll likely be impacted. Even if the contract is for essential work, fewer government employees will be available to process invoices and get money out the door or to approve permits, environmental reviews, etc. The Small Business Administration would be severely handicapped; it won’t consider loan applications or process requests, including disaster related loans. SBA processes anywhere from 60,000+ loans in 2014 to over 9 million in 2020. This could lead to significant challenges in your customer base or supply chain. Additionally, any federally funded research and the programs supporting it likewise come to a halt. Licensing, training, and permitting also largely come to a halt.

Wait What About The House and Senate!?: Geez Louise (is it really “Louise”? Why?) we covered this up top! They’ll be fine, most staffers enjoy shutdowns because it means they get (eventually) paid to sit around binge watching Netflix bring the country back from the depths of despair!

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