THE LOOK AHEAD – February 2026

Produced By:

Bret Manley (bret@elevatega.com) and David Marten (david@elevatega.com)
Elevate Government Affairs (www.elevatega.com)

Balance of Power

Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents Caucusing with Democrats

House: 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 3 Vacancies*

  • GA-14: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned at the beginning of the year. The special election will be held March 10th. If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff will be held April 14th for the runoff if needed. This is a safe GOP seat.
  • NJ-11: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) resigned November 20th in advance of her swearing in as New Jersey’s next Governor on January 20th.  The primary to fill the seat will be February 5th and the special election will be held April 16th. This is a safe Democratic seat.
  • CA-01: Rep. Doug LaMalfa passed away unexpectedly on January 6th. Governor Newsom set the special election for August 4th with a primary on June 2nd. Under CA jungle primary rules, for special elections, a candidate can win outright by securing more than 50% of the vote in the primary. June 2nd is also the CA’s normal primary date, where voters will also be casting ballots for primaries with different district lines. State Assemblyman – and friend/fraternity brother of the Look Ahead – James Gallagher is likely to serve out the remainder of Rep. LaMalfa’s term.  This is a safe Republican seat.
  • *TX-18: Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee won the January 31st special election to serve out the remainder of late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s term. He will be sworn in this evening giving the Democrats 214 members.

Driving the Month Ahead

  • Can Mike Johnson Continue to Pull Rabbits Out of His Hat?: Much ink has been spilled on the size of Johnson’s majority and the challenge of passing legislation. When Rep.-elect Christian Menefee (D-TX) is sworn in tonight Johnson can only lose a single GOP vote and still command a majority on the floor. This effectively turns the U.S. House of Representatives into the Senate, and the whip team into a very stressed-out group of truancy officers. It also means that reconciliation part two, or anything with even a whiff of dissent, is a pipe dream.
  • Wait…Republicans Have a Fundraising Advantage?: We’ve been saying this for a while but unlike past off cycles – especially 2018 – Republicans actually have an early money edge. For the cycle, committees controlled by Republicans have raised about $80 million more than their Democratic counterparts and have almost double the cash on hand. This is before you add in the almost $385 million controlled by President Trump’s political operation. If you can believe it, this is the last month before voters start heading to the polls for primary season (Texas’s primary is March 3rd).
  • So, We’re Shut Down Again?: This despite the fact we went into great detail last month about why there wouldn’t be another – albeit partial – government shutdown! In our defense we detailed why it was unlikely, which means there was a chance, ergo… we were right! This logic is how pollsters make money. We know the Senate has passed their package, and Speaker Johnson wants to bring the bill up under suspension of the rules, which would require 70-plus (depending on attendance) Democrats to vote for the bill. The real number is higher since some number of GOP members will vote “NO” knowing it’ll pass. However, Minority Leader Jefferies told Speaker Johnson that Democrats would not vote for the package so House Leadership is moving forward with a rule. We don’t see how the House moves this bill under a rule. At least three GOP members will wonder (understandably) why they’re moving a two-week DHS CR at the demand of Democrats if the Democrats aren’t going to vote for it and will say no deal. The most likely scenario is the rule fails, and Johnson puts the bill on the floor under suspension and it passes. Otherwise, President Trump is going to have to convince a lot of GOP members that he has a plan of some kind and this is how you get to it.
  • Democrats Get the Conversation Republicans Want: The year started off looking like we were going to be talking about health care, a historically fertile political ground for Democrats. Yet here we are with a government shutdown over immigration enforcement. The Democrats are taking a big risk here. ICE/CBP is more than flush with cash from OBBB, so Republicans don’t necessarily feel a sense of urgency here. And since Dems don’t control either house of Congress, they’re walking into a debate where they don’t control the rules of engagement. There isn’t a Republican consultant in the country that doesn’t want the November elections fought over immigration enforcement. While Democrats feel they can press the advantage now (and they’ve so far been able to by peeling off DHS approps), nine months from now is a long time, and GOP leaders are more than happy to fill floor time with immigration votes that are going to be tough for Hill Dems but have broad support in the federal electorate…like voter ID.
  • State of the Union: President Trump will deliver the State of the Union on February 24th. The state of our culture is such that we expect so many absurd publicity stunts on both sides of the aisle that Rep. Joe Wilson’s “you lie” outburst will seem almost adorable. Want to feel old? That was 17 years ago. To the extent you will pay attention, this is the unofficial kickoff to campaign season. President Trump – and whichever Democrat draws the short straw and has to deliver the rebuttal – will make what is in essence the first draft of their 2026 campaign speeches.
  • Iran, Iran So Far Away: It’s our view that the dramatic raid that captured Venezuelan Dictator Niclas Maduro last month was not the end of the road for President Trump’s embrace of the Monroe…er “Don”roe…Doctrine. Venezuela was a key staging ground and financial ally of Iran. Trump has stated publicly that if protesters were harmed by Iran there would be severe consequences. Well…thousands of them have been brutally murdered, and while you were listening to A Flock of Seagulls (great band name…or greatest band name?) and chiseling snow-crete off your driveway, a significant amount of U.S. military assets have been repositioned in a way that would enable Trump to make good on that commitment. It’s quite possible (probable?) the world will look a lot different by the time President Trump steps up to the rostrum on February 24th.
  • The Most Important Court Case You (Likely) Haven’t Heard About: Bret’s former boss, Rodney Davis, and several of his colleagues past and present filed a lawsuit in 2024 over the constitutionality of denying (themselves) cost-of-living adjustments to Members’ salaries. Word is to expect a ruling on this case by an appeals court. A lot of Members are hoping the courts will bail them out of their self-imposed pay raise moratorium first enacted in 2010, which politically must essentially go on forever. We know that Member pay has become a significant issue for keeping people around who have plenty of options to work 10% of the time for 10x the pay. If the appeals court rules against the Members we could be due another big exodus.
  • Tariff-town, USA: Any day now…really…any…day…now, the Supreme Court will rule on the constitutionality of Trump’s liberal use of the Presidency’s tariff authority. House Republicans have been blocking tariff votes by including language in individual rules, but the blockade expired at the end of January. There are plenty of GOP members who dislike the tariffs (an issue historically embraced by the populist left), and given we’re entering campaign season, Speaker Johnson will have to worry about his members breaking ranks with the President.
  • Consider Yourself in Contempt!: This week, the House of Representatives will vote on holding former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, a former Senator, Secretary of State, and presidential nominee, in contempt of Congress for refusing to comply with a Congressional subpoena as part of the Epstein investigation. It’s the same thing that sent Steve Bannon to jail in 2024, but not Attorney General Eric Holder in 2012. Setting aside all the “no one is above the law” posturing (but seriously there are probably some Democrats, like the Clintons, wishing they had a do-over on the Bannon thing) there is more to this vote than pure political posturing. A significant chunk of elected Democrats, and an even larger share of the activist/base want generational change in the Democratic party. Unlike Congressional Republicans, the Democrats make significant deference to seniority (no term limits for instance), and today’s younger generation of Democrats often find themselves at odds with the men and women who cut their teeth when Clinton was President. Will the new class order the Code Red when the bills hit the floor? In committee, more Democrats (nine) voted to hold President Clinton in contempt than opposed (eight). How many House Democrats will support a criminal contempt resolution for a two term Democratic President? Make note of the age of the YES votes vs NO votes, we bet there’s a significant generational divide.

On Deck – House and Senate Rumblings

Appropriations Process Begins Anew: House appropriators are going to try to get an early jump on this year’s spending process. We’re told several subcommittees will start hearings this week in an effort aimed at reporting all of their bills out of committee by Memorial Day. That is unless they get sidetracked with another prolonged government shutdown. Surely this is the year they get the bills done on time (it won’t be).

Is The Internet Still a Series of Tubes, or Something Else Entirely?: Section 230 reform has long been the white whale for members of both parties with hostility toward tech. The law turns 30 this month, and Senators Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) want to use the anniversary to generate momentum to finally amend the law that provides the basis for social media companies to avoid liability over content hosted on their sites (in ways television networks cannot). In some ways, this is inevitable. Ask any parent where their kids consume media…and they’ll say YouTube. If it weren’t for live sports, we wonder if television networks would exist at all. We don’t think there’s enough support for any significant reform efforts but it’s an area to watch since it’s an issue that unites members who don’t otherwise agree on much.

Surface Reauthorization: House T&I leadership has told us they want to have a bill reported out of committee by Spring. This on top of pipeline safety legislation, WRDA reauthorization, and a comprehensive bipartisan reform of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. So if you have something you want to see in one of those bills, come see us!

Replacing Jerome Powell: Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve and erstwhile construction site supervisor sees his term expire May 15. Trump announced he would be nominating financier and former member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors Kevin Warsh to be his replacement. Fed chair is not a job you want to leave vacant so for Warsh to have his hearings and votes done in time for him to take the reins in May, the work on getting him confirmed will have to begin this month. President Trump doesn’t have a slam dunk here. Specifically, GOP Sen. Thom Tillis…who is retiring and thus not facing the will of the voters…wants resolution over the “investigation” into Jerome Powell and will block the nominee until he’s satisfied.

Get Smart – The State of the Union

Everyone reading this has surely watched at least a dozen State of the Union (SOTU) speeches, probably more (we got a real niche readership here!). January was a long year, so we won’t blame you for turning the speech into a drinking game. Just remember Trump can be, shall we say, loquacious…so maybe start with a light lager.

Why Is This a Thing At All?: Article II, Section 3, Clause 1 of the Constitution states that the President “shall from time to time give to the Congress information of the State of the Union and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient.” So technically the President is required, at some point, to deliver a message to Congress. The Constitution does not say how the President is to do this so yes…this is a meeting that could be an email.

Does It Have to Be In-Person? No. Presidents George Washington and John Adams delivered theirs in person, but this was abandoned by President Jefferson and not picked up again until 1913 by President Woodrow Wilson. It was often argued that it was “monarchical” for the President to address Congress directly. Once radio became ubiquitous (and then of course TV), it became unthinkable for a President to avoid giving the address in-person and so it has been ever since. But some Presidents have avoided it in the year they were inaugurated or in the final year of their term. The last seven presidents did not give a SOTU address in the first year of their terms, treating the inauguration address as a de facto substitute (Trump did speak to a joint session of Congress last March, but technically it was deemed not to be a SOTU address. Why not? No one really knows.

It should be noted that the President can’t simply show up to address Congress. Because the Constitution bestows upon the House and Senate control over their rules and procedures, the President technically needs to be invited.

What Does Congress Have to Do To Set This Shindig In Motion?: First, the House and the Senate have to adopt a Concurrent Resolution setting aside the exact date and time of the address that is technically the invitation “for the purpose of receiving such communication as the President of the United States shall be pleased to make to them.” The day of the event is filled with much pomp and (little) circumstance. First, Senators and House Members assemble in the House Chamber along with various other dignitaries like the Supreme Court, Joint Chiefs, etc. Then a specially appointed committee of Members from both houses escort the President to the House Chamber where the Sergeant at Arms of the House of Representatives announces the President. The Speaker of the House then introduces the President and after all the clapping/booing the speech begins.

What’s With the Line of Succession Thing?: Typically, one person from the President’s Cabinet is named the designated survivor and does not attend. This is in case someone blows up the building or the Reverend Jim Jones is catering (too soon?). The practice started – or was at least first publicly acknowledged – in 1984, not officially (but probably) over fears of a nuclear strike from Russia during the Cold War. The first person to be publicly designated was Housing and Urban Development Secretary Samuel Pierce. We don’t know who that is either.

Who Holds the Records for Shortest and Longest Speeches?: President George Washington’s first address was the shortest at 1,089 words – we assume because he had horrific dental hygiene which made long public speeches somewhat painful (seriously though).  President Bill Clinton’s 2000 address is generally considered to be the longest, clocking in at one hour and 29 minutes. President Trump spoke for an hour and 39 minutes last year but, again, technically that wasn’t a State of the Union speech. So, President Clinton still holds the record, for now. Because this is America, you can definitely place a bet on how long Trump will talk.

Who is Delivering the Response Speech This Year?: It doesn’t matter…as long as it doesn’t go wrong. Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s response to President Trump’s not-officially-a-State of the Union last year was well received, but it wasn’t memorable. And really, that’s the best one can hope for. Giving a SOTU response always feels like drawing the short straw because the response can never match the grandeur of the main event. But it can lead to a lot of internet memes…just ask Marco Rubio or Bobby Jindal. Worst case, it derails your entire political career like Jindal. No pressure!

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