THE LOOK AHEAD – JULY 2026
Produced By:
Bret Manley (bret@elevatega.com) and David Marten (david@elevatega.com)
Balance of Power
Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents Caucusing with Democrats
House: 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, 1 “Independent”, 4 Vacancies
- CA-14: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned April 14th. Governor Newsom set the special election for August 18th. This is a safe Democratic seat.
- GA-13: Rep. David Scott (D) passed away on April 22nd. A special election will be held on July 28th. Under Georgia state law, all candidates will run on one ballot, with a runoff election scheduled for the two top candidates if none receive over 50% of the vote. This is a safe Democratic seat.
- TX-23: Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) resigned April 14th. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has not yet called a special election date. Texas law requires at least 36 days after the announcement of the special election and on the first “uniform” election day (a day where there is already a regular election). There is nothing requiring Abbott to schedule a special election before November’s election. It’s highly likely at this point this seat will remain vacant at least until the 2026 General Election.
- FL-20: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) resigned April 21st after the House Ethics Committee found her guilty of violating 25 House rules related to allegations that she stole and laundered $5 million in COVID aid that was sent to her nonprofit organization. Governor DeSantis (R) has yet to announce a special election, and with Florida’s regular primaries approaching in August, it looks likely DeSantis will not do so. This district was eliminated under the new map passed into law on May 4th.
Driving the Month Ahead
- Congress Nearing the End of Regulation Time: You might not have noticed, but the House is only scheduled to be in for two more weeks until the August break, and then four more in September before breaking until November (remember Congress spends October of election years campaigning). 24 total scheduled legislative days. If the last two weeks are any indication, we’re going to see less than 24 days of action. The problem, of course, is that in those 24 or so days, Congress needs to find a way to fund the government. It may be the only thing to pass both chambers in the next three months…and even that isn’t a guarantee.
- SAVE Me from a Lost Summer: House Republican Leadership wanted to spend July passing appropriations bills to inoculate themselves against a potential shutdown in September. Instead, they wasted the last two weeks unable to report a rule on the floor. That’s…not great. It’s enough to make you wistful of the brutal efficiency of your Homeowner’s Association. It should be said that none of the complaints (pass the SAVE Act, FISA Warrants, etc. etc.) are particularly unique or new. These are the consequences of incredibly small majorities. Members made such protests in prior Congresses, (remember “Audit the Fed!”?) but Leadership had a 20-40 vote cushion. There were few downsides to being obstinate. We are in an age where currency is often measured in attention, not results, so the incentives of House Leadership often won’t be aligned with the rank-and-file. One person could probably help fix it, but he’s um…not. If the House hopes to salvage the summer, Speaker Johnson is going to need to get on the same page with the President. The closer we get to November, the greater the incentives will be for Members to grandstand.
- FISA is on a Red Card: That is to say, it’s currently suspended. Lost in the bruhaha over the SAVE Act and NDAA is that the House and Senate still have not figured out how to reauthorize Section 702 surveillance authority (though importantly much of FISA is still operational until 2027 under previously approved certifications). Maybe Trump could call FIFA President Gianni Infantino and get this one cleared up to?
- GOP/Dem Game Plans Are Taking Shape: It’s an old truism in campaign politics that voters don’t start tuning in until after the 4th of July, with things kicking into high gear after Labor Day (when TV advertisements typically begin). Because of that, July is when parties start to really dial in the message they want to carry to voters in November. With that in mind, go back and watch Trump’s speech on the 4th of July (or just take our word for it). You’ll notice some gratuitous mentions of communism. Because it’s Trump, it’s tempting to assume this was a riff. These were part of the speech on purpose. You’ll be hearing a lot about it in GOP ads this fall. Other lines from the speech that didn’t quite fit…bits on the 2nd Amendment, SAVE Act/Voter ID, and Iran/Venezuela. The Dems, for their part, have so far focused on “affordability” and corruption (worked for them in 2006). We expect an effort to force healthcare back into the news as well.
- Are We Nearing the End of Extra Time in Iran?: There will continue to be War Powers Resolution votes through the election for many reasons, but also because it’s one of the only votes the Minority can force. But the White House is certainly talking like this thing is “done and dusted” (sorry…we have an epidemic of British commentators on TV of late). Is the game over? Has the whistle blown? Probably not. But Trump knows that gas prices have to come down for the GOP to have a shot in November.
- Cornering Republicans on Reconciliation 3.0: Prominent House Republicans have been saying for weeks that they will pass Reconciliation 3.0 in July before heading to August break. A key signal is authorizing Chairmen (like Graves at T&I and Smith at W&M) have publicly stated they aren’t involved or don’t think it’s a good idea. Not the kind of unity you’ll need when you can’t even pass a rule for NDAA. Leadership has been whipping vulnerable Rs, several of whom have told us directly they aren’t enthusiastic about the idea. The Senate, for its part, has shown little, to none, to perhaps negative interest in another reconciliation package. So color us skeptical.
- Time For a Substitute for NDAA?: The inability of House Republican Leadership to bring NDAA to the floor isn’t “stunning,” or whatever verb Hill journos are favoring, but it is an indication of how much our politics have changed. NDAA has passed both Congress in bipartisan fashion every year without requiring temporary extensions. We’re still a long way from risking that record, but the fact that tanking legislation authorizing salaries for the nation’s military is no longer off limits to portions of the Republican rank-and-file is a problem for Speaker Johnson. They tried all the normal tricks last week with self-executing rules and the like, but none of it worked. At this stage in the game, it’s likely only President Trump could break the impasse, but it’s Trump himself fanning the flames on SAVE Act. Ironically, this also makes it exceedingly unlikely Trump will get his Defense supplemental.
House and Senate Rumblings
Highway Handball: As we’ve mentioned before, the prospect of a full highway reauthorization before expiration of existing authorities is a long shot. What we’ve since learned has only confirmed that belief. Key staff at the relevant House Committees have told us Leadership has not given T&I floor time, and internally, staff themselves are skeptical this will happen before September 30th. Additionally, House Ways and Means hasn’t scheduled their markup of the tax portions of the bill, and almost certainly won’t, given one of the main points of contention is the new fees on electric vehicles to compensate for the fact their owners don’t currently pay into the trust fund. Senate staff have told us they’ve had conversations, but paper hasn’t traded hands. Fees on electric vehicles seem to be a deal breaker for many House Democrats, and Ranking Member Larsen has publicly said higher truck weights is also an issue. The battlefield on those issues is relatively known. A newer issue is changes to liability protections for rideshare platforms like Uber and Lyft that were added during T&I markup, which has drawn broad opposition from Dems. And the elephant in the room is still how House Leadership will navigate the White House pressure to include the Railway Safety Act, which is universally (or nearly, at least) supported by Hill Democrats. With Trump leaning in on Republicans, there are more than enough votes in the House and Senate to keep this in the bill. If Leadership is committed to opposing it, the only option looks like buying time by kicking the can down the road. If the Democrats have a good election in November, that could backfire in a big way.
Halftime for Kids Online Safety?: For months, it looked like there were too many issues keeping the House from passing its own version of children’s online safety legislation. Recall the Senate UC’ed COPPA 2.0 during the E&C KIDS Markup. Somewhat out of nowhere Chairman Guthrie and RM Pallone agreed to a package and put it on the suspension calendar. As the kids would say, they pulled out the Uno Reverso card. Two of the bigger sticking points – federal pre-emption and “duty of care” — were essentially dropped. The lack of a duty of care portion in particular is problematic for many Senators, certainly enough to prevent a UC agreement to pass the House bill. Senate Commerce, for its part, plans to hold a markup on KOSA. Staff tell us they’re still targeting a markup in July, and a reminder the Senate doesn’t adjourn for the Summer until August 10th, so their runway is a bit longer than the House.
Stop Faking it: Senate Judiciary passed NO FAKES by unanimous consent, but the bipartisan bill still has some major obstacles before it recesses on August 10th. A number of Senators have free-speech issues with the bill preventing a UC agreement being reached in its current form, but the principles involved are committed to finding agreement and a few powerful industry groups view it as existentially important to pass with the onset of Artificial Intelligence. Its companion on the House side is still flopping around on the ground hoping the referee will notice. We think that’s unlikely, barring intervention from the White House. Chairman Jordan at House Judiciary (where this issue resides) has other priorities, and the staffer on Committee in charge of this portfolio just departed for greener pastures. Presumably a pasture he doesn’t need to roll around on yelping in dramatic fashion to get someone’s attention.
SCORE-ing a Goal: Chairman Cruz and Ranking Member Cantwell successfully got their version of Name, Image, and Likeness legislation out of committee with a bipartisan vote, 19-9. They’ve both indicated they want to take the bill to the floor this summer, which they’ll likely have to do if they want it to pass. We’re told the Republicans ran a hotline to see if they could get unanimous consent, but that it came back with five objections. So, there are still some hurdles, not the least of which is Leader Thune will be loath to give up floor time he could be using to confirm judges for an issue that doesn’t rank in the top 25 on voters’ minds, even if he personally supports it. Though we have been told by people who would know that if they get to 60 votes, they will move the bill and demonstrate the ability to get a bipartisan win on a tricky issue.
Trading Between Host Nations: While Canada and Mexico have both been eliminated from the World Cup, it was the United States who first bowed out of renewing USMCA – one of Trump’s signature first term achievements. Trump’s handling of tariffs has long been a thorn in the side of Hill Republicans (and Democrats) and this will give many of them an opportunity to make their voices heard. We understand House Ways and Means will hold hearings on the issue.
Get Smart – A Short, Abbreviated FAQ on the World Cup…And Why it’s Called Soccer
You may have noticed a running theme in this month’s look ahead, what can we say we’re hooked on the World Cup. Does this have a political nexus? No. But lots of people online are currently mad that President Trump sought to intervene on behalf of the USMNT’s star striker Falorin Balogun’s red card suspension so it is now! If you’re one of these people…please put your phone down and go outside. We here at the Look Ahead are homers through and through. Is FIFA corrupt? Absolutely…you think they reworked the entire world soccer schedule to hold a tournament in a city in the Middle East desert with a grand total of ONE existing soccer stadium on the merits? But this was not corruption. This was a wrong of such historical proportions that the annals of history would seethe with judgement were it not righted. And righted it was. So in that spirit, read on so you can feel confident in your knowledge of soccer as you watch our boys in blue exact revenge for Belgian neutrality in World War II.
OK Off the Top, Why Do We Call It Soccer?: This is actually pretty straight forward. In the mid-1800s, when soccer was invented, the Brits had multiple games they called “football”, which meant at the time a sport that was played on foot (and not on horseback). In 1863, the newly created Football Association adopted the commonly used Cambridge rules for soccer. The other prominent football rule book was the Rugby School rules. So you had Association Rules football and Rugby Rules football. To distinguish between which type of footballer you were, these were shorted to a “rugger,” or person who played rugby, and a “soccer.” or person who played Association rules football. Meanwhile, British expats had already introduced rugby to American colleges, and here it was simply known as football. Ergo, when they needed a word to describe the sport of Association Rules football, we just went with soccer. So when you hear anyone complaining we Americans call it “soccer”…just blame the British!
Speaking of the British…Why Don’t They Have a Team?: You may have noticed that England played last night against Mexico, and something called the “Tartan Army” was here briefly to support Scotland…but England and Scotland aren’t sovereign states. FIFA, soccer’s, world governing body was created in 1904. At that time the English, Scottish, Welsh, and Northern Ireland’s Football Associations were already staging games between national teams from each nation. When world soccer was organized, they negotiated permanent recognition by FIFA as independent footballing nations. Basically, they invented the game and get special treatment because of it. We’ll note this only applies to FIFA. At the Olympics, this rule does not apply so Great Britain fields a team (which also includes Northern Ireland, but that got dropped from the branding for reasons).
How Many World Cups Have There Been?: 23. The inaugural World Cup, won by Uruguay, was held in 1930 and has taken place every four years, except for 1942 and 1946 when all the players were shooting at each other.
Why Do Some Jerseys Have Stars on Them, and Others Don’t?: Firstly, in soccer we call the jersey a “kit.” Secondly, the star above the national team’s crest represents any time that nation has won the World Cup.
Who Has the Most Stars?: Only eight nations have ever won the World Cup. Brazil has done it five times. Germany and Italy four apiece, Argentina (reigning champions) three, Uruguay* and France two, England and Spain one.
- *Uruguay wears four stars on their jersey despite only winning the World Cup twice. The inaugural 1930 tournament and again in 1950 (possibly because all the Europeans were dead). They claim their two Olympic gold medals in soccer from 1924 and 1928 should count because the World Cup didn’t exist and FIFA has allowed this. It’s important to ridicule this if you ever encounter a Uruguayan fan. By this logic, the US Women’s team kit should be made of stars.
Do The Players Get Paid?: Yes, but not by FIFA. FIFA sends a check to the nation’s soccer federation, and the federation pays the players. Each federation has different rules that tend to take into account the importance of each player to the team, and how much money they’d thus lose out on in their professional careers if they have them. The U.S. is an outlier in that since 2022, the Men’s team shares their earnings equally with the women’s team, and each player makes the same amount of money.
What Are the FIFA Payouts?: The FIFA Men’s World Cup is the most lucrative sports tournament in the world, and it’s not really close. This year they’ll pay out $871 million. The prizes vary by how far you go in the tournament. The Champion will receive $50 million, runner up $33 million, $29 mil for 3rd…yatta yatta…$9 million if you’re eliminated in the group stage. Additionally, each federation gets $10 million for qualifying and $2.5 million for “preparation”…aka why Algeria spent two weeks in Lawrence, Kansas. The maximum payout is therefore $62.5 million while the worst team (Qatar by a mile) walks away with $21.5 million. Not bad! For comparison since the Women’s World Cup is next year. The 2023 Champions prize was $10.5 million, with the total purse coming in at $110 million. The USMNT is already guaranteed an additional $15 with its appearance tonight, with $19 million on the line should they make the quarterfinals.
The Field Is So Big, Why is There Only One Referee?: Mostly because soccer evolved around the idea of one central authority controlling the match (very European) and even though its dumb and probably the cause of players flailing around wildly to get attention they’ll never change it because it would “ruin football” to make any improvements whatsoever officiating. Soccer fans and executives, especially in Europe and South America, are always preening on about the “soul of the game” so nothing ever changes. It’s why you hear them complain about “hydration breaks”…while glazing over the fact that these “hydration breaks” are how the prize pool has ballooned to $871 million.
Ok So Red Cards Are in the News, What Are Those?: There are basically three “fouls” you can commit in a soccer game. A common foul, like an accidental handball or too much pushing and shoving is the most…uh…common and results in the play stopping and the other team getting a free kick from the spot. If any foul is in “the box” (the big set of lines around the goal, not the little one, but it includes the little one) it results in a penalty kick. If the foul is particularly aggressive, was dangerous, or was designed to deliberately disrupt a player’s natural motion (like pulling a guy’s shirt so he can’t run past you, or garden variety tripping) you get “booked” with a yellow card. “Booked” means your name goes in the referee’s little book as being a bad boy. If you get two yellow cards in one game (or in some tournaments during a group of games) your two yellows are traded in and you’re awarded a red card. Red cards mean you have to leave the game and your team can’t replace you on the “pitch” (what they call the field). Some fouls lead to immediate red card. Straight reds are usually reserved for deliberately dangerous or negligent/reckless play that could result in injury. A dividing line is typically whether or not a player was making a legitimate attempt on the ball. A straight red would also be awarded for deliberate handballs to keep the ball out of the goal…unless you play for Germany and the United States is about to score a historic upset.
Give Me Enough on the Balogun Red to Argue with These Whiny Belgians: The reason the straight red card Balogun received (and with it a one game ban) is so egregious is because Balogun was making a legitimate play on the ball, and the opposing player challenged from behind. Importantly…the referee didn’t even award a yellow card on the field. VAR (soccer’s “booth review” system) then only showed the Referee slow motion and still shots of the incident, in violation of their own rule book. Any fan of American Football will know that everything looks worse in slow motion.
What is Stoppage Time? Because soccer has a running clock, they needed a way to make up for (and discourage) all the time that’s lost celebrating goals or writhing around on the ground yelping like you need your leg amputated. So they try to come up with a ballpark of all the wasted time and just announce it at the end of the half and full time. The game then kind of just goes on until the referee decides it’s over. It’s not uniform, it creates a lot of unnecessary controversy, especially when the referee lets the clock run because the losing team is in an attacking position.
What Is Offsides? Nobody knows.
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