THE LOOK AHEAD – November 2025

Produced By:

Bret Manley (bret@elevatega.com) and David Marten (david@elevatega.com)
Elevate Government Affairs (www.elevatega.com)

Balance of Power

Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents Caucusing with Democrats
House: 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 2* Vacancies

  • TX-18: Harris County Attorney Chrisitan Menefee and former Houston City Councilmember Amanda Edwards will head to a runoff after no candidate secured 50% of the vote in the November 4th special election. Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) has not announced the date of the runoff election. Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX) passed away on March 5th after just arriving in Congress to fill the seat long held by former Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee until she passed away last year. This is a safe Democratic seat.
  • TN-07: Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), currently the Chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, abruptly resigned from Congress on July 20th. A special primary will be held on October 7th followed by a general election on December 2nd. This is a safe Republican seat.
  • *AZ-07: Rep. Raul Grijalva’s (D-AZ) daughter Adelita won the September 23rd special election. She has not been sworn in because (incredibly) the House has been out of session since passing the CR. Members can only be sworn in when the House is in for official business (aka a legislative session). Pro Forma sessions do not count for this purpose. In theory, someone could ask for unanimous consent, but that’s not going to happen and honestly it doesn’t really matter since they aren’t voting anyways.

Sorry we’re a little late here. We thought the shutdown would be over by now and well…here we are!

Top Line Takeaways

  • This is Going To End…Right?: Yes.
  • When?:…What is time really? Things feel like they’re headed towards a breaking point with the FAA announcing an unprecedented 10% reduction in flights at major airports and both Ds and Rs raising hell about cuts to SNAP, LIHEAP, and other key assistance programs. That said, Senate Dems came out of their caucus lunch yesterday believing they can hold out longer and get a better deal…so nobody in leadership for now has any interest in negotiating a compromise. It’s starting to feel like if we don’t get a deal in the next few days, this thing could go through Thanksgiving.
  • Fili-busted?: Trump is once again demanding that Senate Republicans blow up the filibuster to open the government and “Make America Great Again”…again. While the make-up of the Senate GOP Conference is a little different than during Trump’s first term, it’s not so different that this is a realistic possibility; Senate GOP Leadership has already thrown cold water on it. Some influential conservatives have floated bumping the threshold down to 55 (after all it used to be 67) but we don’t see any indication that has any legs with Senate GOP, most of whom will be in office long after Trump’s second term is done.
  • Supreme Court Decisions: The Supreme Court is back in session, and on its early slate of decisions will be a couple of cases that will impact the future of Congress:
    • Tariffs: Trump’s use of IEEPA, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, to impose sweeping tariffs. Trump is on shakier ground with IEEPA actions than his frequent use of Section 232 and 301. Overturning the IEEPA tariffs won’t affect the 232 and 301 tariffs. The court held arguments for three hours this week with an audience that featured everyone from Scott Bessent to John Mulaney, and while we are not lawyers, it sure seemed like a majority is highly skeptical of the President having broad tariff authority under IEEPA. If Trump loses at SCOTUS, we expect he’ll try to migrate those tariffs over to 232/301, but a big question arises with what about all the money that’s been collected? Do the targets of the IEEPA have further claims against the US? What does Congress do?….lol just kidding, Congress won’t do anything – although SOME of these tariffs have been voted down by the Senate with a handful of Senate GOP siding with the Democrats. They need the House to also act, though it has shown no willingness to do so. SCOTUS could give Congress a boost in reigning in executive authority, or the long march away from Congressional prerogative will continue unabated.
    • Section 2 of Voting Rights Act (VRA): Briefly, section 2 of the VRA requires districts in certain circumstances to be drawn with a majority of “minority” residents. Importantly, the litmus test is not simply that non-white residents are not a majority, but that single minority group have a majority. Conservatives have argued for decades that this is discrimination based on race, and it looks likely SCOTUS will agree. If Section 2 is struck, this will reverberate across the country where districts have been drawn to comply with Section 2. No, it’s not limited to the South. California, Michigan, and Illinois, for instance, have districts that would be shaped differently, were it not for Section 2. Both parties will use this to draw new lines (California/Louisiana/Alabama among others), but the net result is probably more GOP seats.
  • NDAA is on Track: Quietly, far away from all the spicy hot action that is the floor of the U.S. Senate, House and Senate staff have been working through the differences on NDAA. We understand the goal is to have a product released before everyone heads home (assuming they ever came back) for the Thanksgiving holiday and put it on the floor the first week of December.
  • Coast Guard: You may recall (or not, it’s cool that’s what we’re here for) that both the House and Senate versions of NDAA contained the House and Senate versions of the Coast Guard Reauthorization, in each case added as an amendment. Until the shutdown, the House and Senate had done nothing to reconcile the two versions. However, the work began over the last two weeks. The most glaring difference is that the House bill creates a politically appointed Secretary of the Coast Guard, while the Senate bill does not. We’re told there’s a growing—and bipartisan–list of Senators frustrated with how DHS is managing their relationship with lawmakers. Secretary of the Coast Guard could be a casualty of that, or conversely, DHS may get a level of oversight they may come to regret.
  • The Wheels on the Mini-Bus Go Round and Round: There’s been a lot of reporting on how “close” Senate appropriators are to a package of mini-bus bills to fund the government. The assumption is if they come to an agreement, we’re on easy street.  There’s just one major problem…these bills also have to pass the House! And House Members haven’t been in DC for well over a month!
  • Arctic Frost: If you don’t consume conservative media, you probably missed the revelation that the DOJ and FBI (as part of its probe into Donald Trump for J6 dubbed “Arctic Frost”) went well beyond what they claimed they were doing and subpoenaed bank, telephone, business, and donor information of over 400 people in the conservative ecosystem, including 8 sitting U.S. Senators, and got a federal judge (the frequently news making Judge Boasberg) to sign a gag order, so the Senators wouldn’t know. The FBI of course has a long, distinguished, and unblemished history of being totally by the book. You may well be ok with this, but those eight Senators certainly are not, and this will have consequences for the Senate’s ability to do its work. What those consequences are remains to be seen, but Chairman Grassley is not a man with a history of letting this kind of thing go.

On Deck – House and Senate Rumblings

The sad fact is that the shutdown has cost the government something it can’t get back…time. The House, in particular, has not held a single hearing or markup since September. Logistically, this will dramatically limit the amount of work that can be done during the remainder of the session. Add in four federal holidays and you’re looking mostly at big ticket items.

A Note on Scheduling: If the government re-opens, Members have told us that it’s likely some of next week will be session days, with the caveat that Tuesday is Veterans Day. The House and Senate are never in session the week of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and leading into New Year’s Day (unless there’s…um…a shutdown), and we don’t expect that to change.

Online Safety and Privacy: House Energy and Commerce is planning on moving to a “kids package” when Members get back from the shutdown, but it’s likely that will be after they hold a markup on bills that were teed up at the end of September (those bills have already had notices, etc. so it’s faster). From there, they’ll likely move to a legislative hearing on children’s online safety before a markup. Reminder: the House (and importantly the Majority Leader’s office) thinks the Senate’s Kids Online Safety Act – which passed the Senate last year with 91 votes – is blatantly unconstitutional. Anyone telling you the Senate KOSA bill is going to the House floor is blowing smoke. However, House Leadership and E&C Republicans feel they need to act in this space, and it’s long been considered a sure thing that COPPA 2.0 will move in the kids package. At this point, the most likely pairing would be some version of age verification. The question becomes how expansive (the TX vs CA models), and if it’ll just apply to App stores. Broader online privacy, similar to what previous Chair Cathy McMorris Rogers pushed with Ranking Member Pallone will be punted into next year, if it happens at all.

TRUMPCare?: Staffers we talk to on the GOP side are all keenly aware that their legislative plans could get turned upside down if the President comes out and demands health care legislation. It’s not out of the question, and Trump has a habit of taking political issues that historically have advantaged Democrats politically (Tariffs/trade protectionism, Social Security) and adopting a position well to the left of the Republican party of 10 years ago.

Old MacDonald Had a Farm Bill?: E-I-E-I-NO! Technically, the Farm Bill program authorizations expired on September 30th. The good news is that most of those programs continue if Congress appropriates money….oh….right. Big ticket items like Crop Insurance operate under permanent statutory authority, but if Congress doesn’t pass an extension by January 1, a lot of commodity purchase programs revert back to 1930s/40s era Ag policy. Even if we didn’t have all the SNAP drama, they wouldn’t be able to pass a full Farm Bill reauthorization…look for this to get a quiet extension.

Flood Insurance: Another biggie that failed to get reauthorized is the National Flood Insurance Program. Why does that matter? It means FEMA can no longer sell or renew new policies, and lots of places in the U.S.A. have a mandatory requirement for flood insurance on residential property. This means you can’t buy a house in a 1-100 year flood zone (1% chance of flooding in a given year). NFIP has been controversial in conservative fiscal circles for some time (the idea is we’re subsidizing McMansions on the beach), but a lot of low-income communities in the Gulf (and elsewhere) rely on it, so it’ll get extended. However, there might be a demand or two, since it’s an important program for a couple of Louisiana House Members.

Get Smart – What is a Resolution of Inquiry – and How House Republicans are Thwarting Its Use to Cover for the Illuminati.

A lot of hay has been made about Speaker Johnson not swearing in Rep.-elect Grijalva (D-AZ) — which requires him to bring the House into session – during the government shutdown. The line of attack is that he’s protecting Epstein because Rep.-elect Grijalva would sign a discharge petition to release the files, and then and only then will the global Illuminate network of child traffickers helmed by Donald Trump will finally be exposed. Or something like that. Setting all that aside, what the “Release the Epstein Files” Members want is a vote on a “Resolution of Inquiry.”

Ok, Hit Me. What’s a “Resolution of Inquiry”?: It’s a House Resolution that demands answers! In other words, it demands/requests factual information in the possession of the President or head of an Executive Agency. Tell us what you know about this very specific thing we’re asking about.

So, the Administration Has to Comply?: No. It’s not a subpoena or a statute. It’s the pretty, pretty please of Congressional lawmaking.

Then What’s the Point?: Think of all the great one-liners you can take to cable news! Plus, it’s a way to force lawmakers to take a vote on a particular issue.

Wait, How Can You Force a Vote?: Clause 7 of Rule XIII confers privileged status on a Resolution of Inquiry. Which means it’s treated like a Discharge Petition. If you follow all the parliamentary rules, you can get a vote on it. Specifically, if the Resolution of Inquiry doesn’t come to the floor in 14 legislative days, a motion to discharge the resolution becomes privileged.

So Did the Epstein Truthers Follow All The Rules?: Yes

Then What’s the Problem?: We frequently preach from these pages that the Senate is a body that functions on precedent and tradition that protects the rights of the minority, and the House is a rules-based body that is majority controlled. On April 29th, 2025, the House Rules Committee included a clause in a rule governing debate on overturning Biden era rulemakings. Section 5 of that Rule states “Each day during the period from April 29, 2025, through September 30, 2025, shall not constitute a legislative day for purposes of clause 7 of rule XIII.”

AHA! It’s November, When They Get Back From Shutdown They’re Finished!: Nope. A superseding clause was enacted on September 16th changing the date to March 31st, 2026, as part of the Rule for a bunch of bills on D.C. policing.

I Don’t Understand?: They pulled an Obi-Wan…these are not the droids you’re looking for. The House officially changed its own rules to state that certain dates don’t count as legislative days for the specific purpose of Clause 7 of Rule XIII.

And They Can Do This?: As long as they can pass in on the floor, yep. This is why it’s good to read the Rules reported for each bill; you never know what’s lurking in there!

So Will the House Ever Be Forced To Do Anything?: The House already adopted a resolution effectively “endorsing” the House Oversight Committee investigation. As far as House Leadership is concerned, their Members have taken the vote they need to tell their constituents they voted to release the Epstein files. Anything else will get the run around via rule making.

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