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THE LOOK AHEAD – SEPTEMBER 2026

Produced By:

Bret Manley (bret@elevatega.com) and David Marten (david@elevatega.com)

Balance of Power

Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents Caucusing with Democrats

House: 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 1 “Independent”, 2 Vacancies*

  • CA-14: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned April 14th. State Senator Aisha Wahab (D) won the special election to fill out the remainder of Swalwell’s term. She will be sworn in this week.
  • GA-13: Rep. David Scott (D) passed away on April 22nd. Everton Blair Jr. (D) won the special election to finish out Scott’s term. He will be sworn in this week.
  • TX-23: Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) resigned April 14th. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has not yet called a special election date. This seat will remain vacant until after the regularly scheduled general election.
  • FL-20: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) resigned April 21st. This seat will remain vacant until the regularly scheduled general election.

Driving the Month Ahead

  • CR: Speaker Johnson is going to put the Senate-passed CR on the floor under suspension today. It will pass easily. At least that’s the plan. Speaker Johnson and the vast majority of the Republican Conference know that a shutdown nukes any chance of maintaining a majority. Of course, putting a CR on suspension is what ultimately sunk former Speaker McCarthy… but, for Johnson, losing the majority probably costs him the top spot regardless. The Democrats for their part don’t want the wild card of a shutdown and potentially sharing in the blame. That’s not to say a lot of people won’t rush to the camera to complain: the bill deports too many people, it doesn’t deport enough people, it rigs elections, it doesn’t secure elections, it empowers the oligarchs, it’s backdoor socialism, and on and on. We get to do it all over again December 11th under new political dynamics – won’t that be fun?
  • So…Are We Sticking Around?: The CR is really the only thing that has to get done this month. Once it’s passed and signed by the President (and he will sign it…right?), the House could adjourn at any time. And really…would anyone notice who’s not a lobbyist or journalist? The smart money would take the “under” on how many days the House will be in session. There will be attendance problems with anyone not coming back next year (especially those that lost primaries) or with a tough re-election bid. Our bet is almost certainly the week of the 28th with high potential for at least some of the week of the 21st. The Senate, for their part, still needs to confirm appointees and judges, so they have less incentive to call it a day.
  • D-Day for Data Centers?: In July, the House Energy and Commerce Committee passed the Ratepayer Protection Act in response to a rapidly shifting public opinion on data centers (thanks, China). This is one of the things that may keep the House around, since it offers vulnerable members a vote on a hot button political issue. However, that’s ALSO why a vote may not happen. There are plenty of Members on both sides of the aisle that support data centers…but don’t want to be on the record about it two months before their election.
  • Iran Front and Center: When this conflict first kicked off (way back on February 28th) we noted that it had the potential to seriously upend the election. That remains true, and you’re going to see evidence of it starting next week when Democrats start flooding the airwaves with ads on gas prices. Combined, there have been 23 War Powers-related votes (if you count Senate procedural votes, which we do) this year. 18 of those were related to Iran. There will likely be at least one more and whether anyone switches sides will tell you a lot about how Iran is playing back home.
  • NDAA: Armed Services Committee staff used most of August to take a well-earned vacation or travel to far-off places in sub-Saharan Africa.  As they trickle back, they will begin negotiating what will become the FY27 NDAA. Most of their work will fall under the radar as Washington is focused on mid-term elections. Congressional leadership, eager to ensure that the NDAA’s 65-year streak does not break under their watch, will prefer to jettison contentious legislation and pass it in December.
  • NIL (Likely) Headed to Overtime: Football is back. A nation rejoices. However, the prospect of NFL players returning to college to continue their um…academic pursuits, has provided a high-profile boost to the effort to pass “NIL” legislation. It’s inevitable the NCAA/conferences will lose lawsuits that seek to bar these players from returning and making more money than they would in the NFL. Likewise, some coach (ahem Lane Kiffin) will sign one of these players. It may be enough to break the logjam in the Senate. What the House does in this scenario is another story. House Democrats, and the CBC in particular, have soured on any NIL package. House Republicans would likely have to bring it to the floor under a rule…and given the attendance issues and slim majority this is a major issue. While the bill is broadly popular with the public, its passage simply won’t provide anyone who needs it a boost of political support back home, making it a prime candidate for post-election legislation where an altered Congressional landscape wouldn’t necessarily upset the bipartisan Senate coalition behind the bill.
  • Vulnerable Member Priority Season: September before an election is, obviously, the last chance for vulnerable Members to “accomplish” something. Sometimes these things are actually another person’s accomplishment with their name slapped on top. You mean to tell me there are no lobstermen in the Hudson Valley? This manifests itself via markups for bills that will go nowhere and a scramble to get things on the Suspension Calendar.
  • Surface Reauthorization: The CR carries with it a companion extension of surface program authorizations. The reality of the situation is there’s very little chance that December 11th won’t see another extension resulting in an entirely new bill. The first problem is the Senate isn’t anywhere near ready to move a bill, and putting together a bipartisan package in election season isn’t a specialty of American government. That means a Senate bill would have to be put together in an environment where Senate Democrats (might/probably will) have every incentive to wait for the 120th Congress. And they will wait. Chairman Graves is retiring, Ranking Member Larsen might be looking at a promotion, and there has been no progress on the three big hangups in the House bill (Railway Safety Act, truck weights, electric vehicle fees). Even if House Republicans pull a rabbit out of the hat and maintain the majority, we envision an extension into the 120th Congress where a new committee chairman will want to put their own stamp on a bill.
  • Reconciliation is Dead, Long Live Reconciliation: Reconciliation 3.0 is almost certainly dead…for now. House Republicans have attendance problems, and their vulnerable Members want no part in another party line vote. Senate Republicans certainly don’t want to turn the floor over to an endless series of amendments from Democrats on every issue under the sun. Oh, yeah…and they can’t even agree on what should be in the package in the first place. If the House or Senate (or both) flips, the White House will put an enormous amount of pressure on Congressional Republicans to pass one more bill while they still can. Getting Members who lost their elections back to DC is a tall enough order…before confronting the fact that some of them (like say…Sen. Bill Cassidy) hold the President personally responsible for their career change.

Get Smart – The Bells and Lights of Capitol Hill

Maybe you used to be a staffer, maybe you never were. Either way now you’re out, and you’re on the Hill and you hear the bells and you see the lights! What do they mean!? A relic of a bygone era, when the VCR reigned supreme and you needed a subscription to Reader’s Digest to know when to set it to “Record”. At some point the system will go the way of Blockbuster Video but that day is not today so enjoy this obscure bit of pointless knowledge while you still can!

In The Senate:

  • One Long Ring, No Light: Senate is convening.
  • Continuous Red Light: Senate is in session.
  • One Ring, One Light: Call to vote by yeas and nays.
  • Two Rings, Two Lights: Quorum Call.
  • Three Rings, Three Lights: Call of absentees, or calling for a “live” quorum.
  • Four Rings, Four Lights: Adjournment or recess for the day.
  • Five Rings, Five Lights: 7.5 minutes remaining on a vote by the yeas and nays.
  • Six Rings, Six Lights that then cut off: Morning business is concluded.
  • Six Rings, Six Lights stay on: Recess during a daily session.

In The House:

  • Continuous Single Red Light: House is in session.
  • Two Rings, Two Lights: First vote in an electronic vote series, 15 minutes (more like 25).
  • Three Rings, Three Lights: Quorum call. Usually only happens before electing Speaker.
  • Four Rings, Four Lights: Adjournment of the House.
  • Five Rings, Five Lights: Start of a 5 minute vote.
  • Six Rings, Six Lights: Recess of the House.

Flags Atop Each Chamber: If you’re walking or driving by and wondering if the House or Senate are in session, you can simply look to see if the American flag is flying above the respective chamber. If Old Glory is flying high, that chamber is in session!

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